Oct 31 2005
Cable and DSL for broadband? The rules are changing.
A few years ago, right in the tail end of the internet bubble, I was part of the launch of Dotcast. The company barely survived, but more because of technology delivery problems than funding problems. Dotcast could raise money because it offered the promise of something extraordinary – a high volume content distribution pipe that bypassed cable, and DSL.
A key financial player for the company was Disney, who launched the MovieBeam service using Dotcast’s datacasting (data over TV) technology. Disney loved Dotcast because if it worked, it offered a distribution channel for Movie, TV, and other content without any toll takers. It bypassed cable and DSL (and for movies, even video rental stores). In the end Dotcast’s technology took too long to develop, didn’t work as well as expected, cost too much to deploy, and with the delays got squeezed by the plans in the US to phase out NSTC broadcast technologies.
But content companies HATE having to pay for distribution (and even want to be reverse the role)! Look at the RIAA now wanting a share of iPod revenue…they want to be paid BY the distribution channel. In the other direction, here is SBC’s CEO, now saying they want payment from companies like Google to let them deliver their content over SBC DSL lines – even after they have charged the consumer for the DSL in the first place. I’ve been playing around with Vonage, but am just waiting for Comcast to start mucking with connection quality for Vonage voice traffic (and demanding revenue share from Vonage). I recently tried to use Skype over a Verizon wireless data connection and guess what – the Verizon connection dropped every time I tried to initiate any VOIP traffic.
So when I look at the next generation of wide area wireless technology just reaching deployment stage in 2006, I find it very interesting. When I hear about Google buying up dark fiber everywhere and their bid to offer free wireless in San Francisco as a prototype for bigger things, I smile. I think we will see A LOT of non-traditional money get sunk into multiple competing wide area wireless solutions in the next few years. Those that currently control the broadband pipes into consumer homes are going to see incredible competition – mostly made economical by the high tolls they are imposing (making these other huge technology investments look cheap). I’m annoyed that greed drives this, and pleased with what I think the end result will be.